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King Alexander

8yo Gelding · 11-11 · OR 148

Listowel · Guinness Kerry National Handicap Chase (Grade 3) · 2m 7f 180y

#4

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

6%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Multiple winner over hurdles but has quickly made up into a smart chaser and landed the biggest prize of his career to date when winning Galway Plate in July by ½-length from Conyers Hill. Improvement needed if he's to defy an 8 lb rise now back at 3m.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength11%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 3.9)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.0
Today: 1
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack1 @ Leopardstown 01/02/2025 · Pos 9th of 25 · OR 134 · 3m19y Sft 164 · below its mark01/02/2025 · OR 134 par1/021OR 1341 @ Cheltenham 12/03/2025 · Pos 15th of 26 · OR 137 · 2m5f GS 152 · below its mark12/03/2025 · OR 137 par2 @ Sandown 26/04/2025 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 135 · 2m3f173y Goo 165 · below its mark26/04/2025 · OR 135 par26/042OR 135C0 @ Naas 15/12/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR - · 2m4f40y Hvy 166C0 @ Gowran Park 22/01/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR - · 2m4f Hvy 16622/01C?C0 @ Gowran Park 14/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR - · 2m3f70y Hvy 1661 @ Cheltenham 12/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 18 · OR 144 · 2m4f127y Goo 158 · below its mark12/03/2026 · OR 144 par12/031OR 1441 @ Punchestown 29/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 140 · 2m4f80y Yie 156 · below its mark29/04/2026 · OR 140 par1 @ Galway 29/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 22 · OR 140 · 2m6f111y Gd 153 · beat its mark29/07/2026 · OR 140 par29/071OR 140projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 21
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-29Galway11st1st0
2026-04-29Punchestown16th6th0
2026-03-12Cheltenham14th4th0
2026-02-14Gowran Park?1st1st0
2026-01-22Gowran Park?3rd3rd0
2025-12-15Naas?2nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today1/0215/1212/0329/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 21100% of fieldRange 1-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength100%

Delivery trend -1.4% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 21.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
01/02/20259th28/10%67%+0.67
12/03/202515th66/10%44%+0.44
26/04/20253rd18/15%78%+0.73
15/12/20252nd11/271%88%+0.16
22/01/20263rd9/276%75%-0.01
14/02/20261st4/998%100%+0.02
12/03/20264th20/10%82%+0.82
29/04/20266th7/491%62%-0.29
29/07/20261st20/10%100%+1.00