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16

Kings Hill

7yo Gelding · 10-12 · OR 135

Listowel · Guinness Kerry National Handicap Chase (Grade 3) · 2m 7f 180y

#19

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#19

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Useful chaser who notched up a second success over fences when landing a gamble in 20-runner Galway Blazers handicap last time by 3¾ lengths from A Penny A Hundred. An 8 lb rise demands more but he could still have more to offer as a staying chaser.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲10
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 14.8 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C10.8
Today: 1
Class gap: -9.8
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Aintree 04/04/2025 · Pos 11th of 17 · OR 132 · 2m103y Gd 153 · below its mark04/04/2025 · OR 132 par4/042OR 132C0 @ Leopardstown 27/12/2025 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR - · 2m1f Yie 166C0 @ Navan 17/01/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR - · 3m Sft 16617/01C?BHA118 @ Navan 08/02/2026 · Pos 5th of 17 · OR 118 · 3m Hvy 164 · below its mark08/02/2026 · OR 118 parC8 @ Limerick 12/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 117 · 2m1f185y Hvy 166 · beat its mark12/03/2026 · OR 117 par12/03C8OR 117BHA124 @ Fairyhouse 04/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 17 · OR 124 · 2m5f45y Yie 164 · below its mark04/04/2026 · OR 124 parBHA124 @ Roscommon 08/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 15 · OR 124 · 3m1f24y Sft 150 · below its mark08/06/2026 · OR 124 par8/06124OR 124C8 @ Ballinrobe 20/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR - · 1m4f179y Goo 135BHA127 @ Galway 31/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 20 · OR 127 · 2m6f111y Goo 153 · beat its mark31/07/2026 · OR 127 par31/07127OR 127projClass-projected finish: 20th of 21
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-31GalwayBHA1271st15th−12
2026-07-20Ballinrobe?6th14th−7
2026-06-08RoscommonBHA1242nd16th−11
2026-04-04FairyhouseBHA1243rd17th−11
2026-03-12Limerick?1st9th−7
2026-02-08NavanBHA1185th18th−11

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/048/028/0631/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish16th of 2125% of fieldRange 3-15 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength59%

Delivery trend -6.3% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 16th of 21. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/04/202511th40/10%38%+0.38
27/12/20253rd25/10%50%+0.50
17/01/20264th80/10%50%+0.50
08/02/20265th28/10%75%+0.75
12/03/20261st7/163%100%+0.37
04/04/20263rd9/276%88%+0.11
08/06/20262nd15/261%93%+0.32
20/07/20266th13/266%38%-0.28
31/07/20261st5/174%100%+0.26