8
Nowwhatdoyouthink
7yo Gelding · 11-7 · OR 144
Listowel · Guinness Kerry National Handicap Chase (Grade 3) · 2m 7f 180y
#7
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲4
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 1
Class gap: -3.7
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | Galway | 1 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-28 | Punchestown | 1 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-05 | Cork | 1 | 1st | 1st | +0 |
| 2026-03-05 | Thurles | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-11-23 | Cork | BHA124 | 1st | 15th | −11 |
| 2025-10-26 | Wexford | BHA124 | 3rd | 17th | −11 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 2185% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength100%
Delivery trend +1.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 21.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/06/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 64% | +0.27 |
| 01/10/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 71% | +0.35 |
| 22/10/2025 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 56% | +0.40 |
| 26/10/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 78% | -0.01 |
| 23/11/2025 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 05/03/2026 | 2nd | 22/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 05/04/2026 | 1st | 4/5 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 28/04/2026 | 3rd | 33/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 29/07/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 86% | +0.23 |