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11

Spread Boss Ted

9yo Gelding · 11-2 · OR 139

Listowel · Guinness Kerry National Handicap Chase (Grade 3) · 2m 7f 180y

#13

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#13

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won a novice chase at Naas by ½ length from Ballygunner Castle and coped well with the hustle and bustle of a big-field handicap when 6 lengths third of 22 to Funiculi Funicula at Punchestown in April. Possibly needed run in Galway Plate last time and merits each-way consideration now back at 3m.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 3.8)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C0.8
Today: 1
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Naas 12/11/2023 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR - · 2m2f200y Sft 16612/11C8C8 @ Navan 17/12/2023 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR - · 2m Sft 166C8 @ Fairyhouse 24/01/2024 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR - · 2m3f210y Hvy 16624/01C81 @ Cheltenham 15/03/2024 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR - · 2m7f213y Hvy 1611 @ Fairyhouse 21/04/2025 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR - · 2m3f180y Sft 157 · HIGHER CLASS21/041C0 @ Punchestown 15/02/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR - · 2m6f205y Hvy 166C0 @ Naas 08/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR - · 2m4f Sft 1668/03C?1 @ Punchestown 01/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 22 · OR 139 · 2m4f55y Yie 163 · below its mark01/05/2026 · OR 139 par1 @ Galway 29/07/2026 · Pos 12th of 22 · OR 140 · 2m6f111y Gd 153 · below its mark29/07/2026 · OR 140 par29/071OR 140projClass-projected finish: 7th of 21
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-29Galway112th12th0
2026-05-01Punchestown13rd3rd0
2026-03-08Naas?1st1st0
2026-02-15Punchestown?4th4th0
2026-01-17Navan?0
2025-04-21Fairyhouse16th5th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/1115/038/0329/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 2145% of fieldRange 6-21 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength39%

Delivery trend +3.7% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 12th of 21. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/11/20236th11/271%62%-0.10
17/12/20231st2/189%100%+0.11
24/01/20241st2/598%100%+0.02
15/03/20244th40/10%75%+0.75
21/04/20256th17/255%44%-0.11
15/02/20264th14/126%50%+0.24
08/03/20261st10/382%100%+0.18
01/05/20263rd14/126%90%+0.64
29/07/202612th12/137%48%+0.11