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Uncle Pat

8yo Gelding · 11-1 · OR 138

Listowel · Guinness Kerry National Handicap Chase (Grade 3) · 2m 7f 180y

#15

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#15

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Confirmed previous promise when winning 19-runner handicap chase (7/2) at Punchestown (31f, good) in May, though struggled from 12 lb higher mark next time. Got back on track in small-field novice behind Butch Cassidy at Killarney last time but has work to do from current handicap mark.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲5
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 9.9 /10 (raw 3.3)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 1
Class gap: -4.9
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Galway 01/08/2025 · Pos 8th of 16 · OR - · 2m6f111y Gd 1661/08C?C0 @ Listowel 25/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR - · 2m6f Goo 166BHA124 @ Navan 06/12/2025 · Pos 6th of 16 · OR 124 · 2m4f150y Sft 166 · below its mark06/12/2025 · OR 124 par6/12124OR 1241 @ Limerick 28/12/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 123 · 2m3f100y Sft 140 · beat its mark28/12/2025 · OR 123 par1 @ Punchestown 15/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 123 · 3m3f60y Hvy 156 · beat its mark15/02/2026 · OR 123 par15/021OR 123BHA125 @ Downpatrick 29/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 15 · OR 125 · 3m4f120y Yie 156 · below its mark29/03/2026 · OR 125 parBHA127 @ Punchestown 02/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 19 · OR 127 · 3m7f68y Yie 148 · beat its mark02/05/2026 · OR 127 par2/05127OR 1271 @ Kilbeggan 10/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 139 · 3m1f80y Goo 163 · below its mark10/07/2026 · OR 139 parC8 @ Killarney 22/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 4 · OR 139 · 2m7f80y Goo 164 · below its mark22/08/2026 · OR 139 par22/08C8OR 139projClass-projected finish: 18th of 21
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-22Killarney?2nd10th−7
2026-07-10Kilbeggan17th7th0
2026-05-02PunchestownBHA1271st15th−12
2026-03-29DownpatrickBHA1252nd16th−12
2026-02-15Punchestown12nd2nd0
2026-02-01Leopardstown10

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today1/0828/122/0522/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish17th of 2120% of fieldRange 10-21 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength14%

Delivery trend -1.1% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 17th of 21.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
01/08/20258th4/179%53%-0.26
25/09/20254th5/287%57%-0.30
06/12/20256th28/10%67%+0.67
28/12/20252nd4/179%86%+0.07
15/02/20262nd17/255%92%+0.37
29/03/20262nd15/890%93%+0.03
02/05/20261st7/282%100%+0.18
10/07/20267th4/179%54%-0.25
22/08/20262nd5/287%67%-0.20