18
Weveallbeencaught
9yo Gelding · 10-10 · OR 133
Listowel · Guinness Kerry National Handicap Chase (Grade 3) · 2m 7f 180y
#17
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#17
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 9.8 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.2
Today: 1
Class gap: -2.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-06 | Fairyhouse | 1 | 0 | ||
| 2026-03-12 | Cheltenham | 2 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2025-12-27 | Leopardstown | 1 | 16th | 16th | 0 |
| 2025-10-19 | Limerick | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-09-27 | Listowel | BHA132 | 4th | 19th | −12 |
| 2025-04-05 | Aintree | 1 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish18th of 2115% of fieldRange 6-21 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength25%
Delivery trend +0.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 18th of 21.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/12/2024 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 60% | +0.44 |
| 25/01/2025 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 01/03/2025 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 64% | -0.10 |
| 13/03/2025 | 4th | 28/1 | 0% | 86% | +0.86 |
| 05/04/2025 | 4th | 17/2 | 55% | 73% | +0.17 |
| 27/09/2025 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 67% | -0.18 |
| 19/10/2025 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 93% | +0.22 |
| 27/12/2025 | 16th | 9/1 | 53% | 44% | -0.08 |
| 12/03/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |