4
Will The Wise
7yo Gelding · 11-11 · OR 148
Listowel · Guinness Kerry National Handicap Chase (Grade 3) · 2m 7f 180y
#9
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.1 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.1
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | Galway | 1 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-04-10 | Aintree | 1 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-10 | Cheltenham | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-12-27 | Leopardstown | 1 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-11-16 | Navan | 1 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-10-25 | Galway | ? | 1st | 9th | −7 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 2180% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength96%
Delivery trend +8.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 21. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/04/2025 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 60% | -0.08 |
| 11/05/2025 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 50% | -0.40 |
| 07/10/2025 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 80% | -0.11 |
| 25/10/2025 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 16/11/2025 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 83% | +0.20 |
| 27/12/2025 | 10th | 15/2 | 61% | 67% | +0.06 |
| 10/03/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 95% | +0.48 |
| 10/04/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 29/07/2026 | 11th | 12/1 | 37% | 52% | +0.16 |