21
Yoradreamer
7yo Gelding · 10-3 · OR 126
Listowel · Guinness Kerry National Handicap Chase (Grade 3) · 2m 7f 180y
#14
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#14
★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲6
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 16.0 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C7.1
Today: 1
Class gap: -6.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Killarney | ? | 3rd | 11th | −7 |
| 2026-07-31 | Galway | BHA127 | 14th | 28th | −12 |
| 2026-07-10 | Kilbeggan | 1 | 0 | ||
| 2026-06-07 | Punchestown | ? | 2nd | 10th | −7 |
| 2026-05-01 | Punchestown | 1 | 0 | ||
| 2026-03-17 | Wexford | BHA128 | 1st | 15th | −12 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish19th of 2110% of fieldRange 10-21 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength3%
Delivery trend -0.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 19th of 21.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/05/2025 | 5th | 15/8 | 90% | 71% | -0.19 |
| 15/06/2025 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 23/07/2025 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 63% | -0.19 |
| 17/01/2026 | 6th | 66/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 14/02/2026 | 2nd | 40/1 | 0% | 86% | +0.86 |
| 17/03/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 07/06/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 50% | -0.38 |
| 31/07/2026 | 14th | 33/1 | 0% | 32% | +0.32 |
| 22/08/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 33% | -0.30 |