15
You Oughta Know
8yo Gelding · 11-0 · OR 137
Listowel · Guinness Kerry National Handicap Chase (Grade 3) · 2m 7f 180y
#8
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#8
★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 8.7 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.0
Today: 1
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | Punchestown | 1 | 0 | ||
| 2026-03-22 | Limerick | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-01 | Leopardstown | 1 | 0 | ||
| 2025-12-27 | Leopardstown | 1 | 22th | 22th | 0 |
| 2025-11-02 | Cork | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-19 | Limerick | 1 | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 2135% of fieldRange 17-21 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -2.1% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 14th of 21. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/12/2024 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 06/04/2025 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 57% | -0.09 |
| 23/04/2025 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 77% | +0.51 |
| 16/06/2025 | 2nd | 4/5 | 96% | 88% | -0.08 |
| 23/07/2025 | 2nd | 10/11 | 95% | 75% | -0.20 |
| 29/08/2025 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 02/11/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 75% | -0.01 |
| 27/12/2025 | 22nd | 20/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 22/03/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 67% | -0.23 |