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Emily Love

7yo Mare · 11-7 · OR 121

Listowel · Ballygarry Estate Hotel & Spa Mares Novice Chase · 2m 3f

#1

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

79%

Place Prob

59%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Prolific novice hurdler who got off the mark at the second attempt over fences at Tramore in May, despite finding 2m barely enough of a test. Possibly found race coming too soon at Punchestown 8 days later. Should still have more to offer as a chaser.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼2
Strength63%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.6 /10 (raw 2.0)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C5.1
Today:
Class gap: +2.4
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Limerick 29/05/2025 · Pos 1st of 15 · OR - · 2m3f50y Goo 16129/05C84 @ Perth 08/06/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 113 · 2m4f35y Gd 155 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/06/2025 · OR 113 parBHA113 @ Kilbeggan 16/06/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 113 · 2m2f200y Goo 161 · beat its mark16/06/2025 · OR 113 par16/06113OR 113BHA125 @ Killarney 17/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 125 · 2m4f85y Yie 155 · beat its mark17/07/2025 · OR 125 par1 @ Galway 29/07/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 130 · 2m110y Gd 156 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark29/07/2025 · OR 130 par29/071OR 130C8 @ Killarney 21/08/2025 · Pos 4th of 4 · OR 130 · 2m6f180y Goo 157 · below its mark21/08/2025 · OR 130 parC5 @ Far Hills 18/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 129 · 2m1f 160 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/10/2025 · OR 129 par18/10C5OR 129C0 @ Tramore 30/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR - · 1m7f130y Goo 161C8 @ Punchestown 07/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 3 · OR - · 3m186y Goo 1577/06C8projClass-projected finish: 6th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-07Punchestown?3rd3rd0
2026-05-30Tramore?1st1st0
2026-05-09Killarney?0
2025-10-18Far Hills?1st-3th+3
2025-08-21Killarney?4th4th0
2025-07-29Galway13rd-5th+7

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today29/0517/0718/107/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 3-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength22%

Delivery trend -7.3% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
29/05/20251st4/797%100%+0.03
08/06/20251st4/998%100%+0.02
16/06/20251st7/491%100%+0.09
17/07/20251st6/492%100%+0.08
29/07/20253rd13/266%67%+0.01
21/08/20254th11/486%0%-0.86
18/10/20251st8/1196%100%+0.04
30/05/20261st10/382%100%+0.18
07/06/20263rd6/492%0%-0.92