5
Kelya
6yo Mare · 11-0
Listowel · Ballygarry Estate Hotel & Spa Mares Novice Chase · 2m 3f
#7
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼5
Strength100%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.4 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.8
Today:
Class gap: +4.8
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | Wexford | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-03-13 | Limerick | 1 | 7th | -1th | +7 |
| 2024-10-30 | Auteuil | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2024-08-18 | Le Lion D'angers | ? | 5th | 1st | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 70% of fieldRange 2-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength59%
Delivery trend +9.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/08/2024 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 20% | -0.06 |
| 30/10/2024 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 60% | +0.23 |
| 13/03/2025 | 7th | 66/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 08/08/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |