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Lady Bluebird

9yo Mare · 11-7 · OR 125

Listowel · Ballygarry Estate Hotel & Spa Mares Novice Chase · 2m 3f

#5

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Made a great start over fences when winning an 8-runner mares maiden by a length from Future Prospect, jumping soundly at the head of affairs and knuckling down well. Backed that up when 1¼ lengths second of 7 to Shadow Paddy in Grade 3 chase at Galway. This course will suit her trailblazing style.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength12%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 5.6)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C8.4
Today:
Class gap: -0.9
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA102 @ Navan 14/12/2025 · Pos 11th of 19 · OR 102 · 2m4f Sft 148 · below its mark14/12/2025 · OR 102 par14/12102OR 102BHA99 @ Fairyhouse 01/01/2026 · Pos 7th of 24 · OR 99 · 2m4f Yie 156 · below its mark01/01/2026 · OR 99 parBHA98 @ Navan 28/02/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 98 · 2m4f Hvy 149 · below its mark28/02/2026 · OR 98 par28/0298OR 98BHA95 @ Tramore 20/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 16 · OR 95 · 2m5f Goo 163 · beat its mark20/04/2026 · OR 95 parBHA105 @ Cork 10/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 15 · OR 105 · 2m3f50y Goo 162 · below its mark10/05/2026 · OR 105 par10/05105OR 105BHA106 @ Ballinrobe 25/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 16 · OR 106 · 2m6f100y Goo 142 · below its mark25/05/2026 · OR 106 parBHA106 @ Ballinrobe 26/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 15 · OR 106 · 2m6f28y Goo 165 · below its mark26/05/2026 · OR 106 par26/05106OR 106C0 @ Wexford 30/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR - · 2m3f110y Goo 1611 @ Galway 30/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR - · 2m2f54y Goo 148 · HIGHER CLASS30/071projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-30Galway12nd-6th+7
2026-06-30Wexford?1st1st0
2026-05-26BallinrobeBHA1063rd7th−3
2026-05-25BallinrobeBHA1066th10th−3
2026-05-10CorkBHA1052nd6th−3
2026-04-20TramoreBHA951st3rd−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today14/1220/0426/0530/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +2.1% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
14/12/202511th100/10%44%+0.44
01/01/20267th66/10%74%+0.74
28/02/20265th12/137%33%-0.04
20/04/20261st18/15%100%+0.95
10/05/20262nd9/153%93%+0.40
25/05/20266th9/153%67%+0.14
26/05/20263rd11/271%86%+0.15
30/06/20261st20/10%100%+1.00
30/07/20262nd16/116%83%+0.68