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6

Missus Beeton

8yo Mare · 11-0

Listowel · Ballygarry Estate Hotel & Spa Mares Novice Chase · 2m 3f

#6

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Fairly useful hurdler, successful twice in mares handicaps last season. Showed aptitude for chasing when 20½ lengths third of 6 to Luker's Tipple in novice chase at Tramore last time. Open to improvement in this sphere but this looks too competitive.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength10%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.2 /10 (raw 6.1)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C9.0
Today:
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack1 @ Naas 10/11/2024 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 108 · 2m4f Goo 140 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark10/11/2024 · OR 108 par10/111OR 108BHA106 @ Tramore 25/11/2025 · Pos 9th of 13 · OR 106 · 2m5f Sft 162 · below its mark25/11/2025 · OR 106 parBHA105 @ Cork 03/01/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 105 · 2m4f Yie 154 · below its mark03/01/2026 · OR 105 par3/01105OR 105BHA102 @ Down Royal 20/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 102 · 2m1f33y Sft 158 · beat its mark20/01/2026 · OR 102 parBHA110 @ Leopardstown 03/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 110 · 2m2f72y Sft 156 · beat its mark03/03/2026 · OR 110 par3/03110OR 1101 @ Fairyhouse 04/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 18 · OR 121 · 2m Yie 140 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark04/04/2026 · OR 121 parBHA121 @ Bellewstown 04/07/2026 · Pos 11th of 16 · OR 121 · 2m1f40y Gd 160 · below its mark04/07/2026 · OR 121 par4/07121OR 121BHA120 @ Galway 29/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 20 · OR 120 · 2m110y Gd 161 · below its mark29/07/2026 · OR 120 parC8 @ Tramore 13/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR - · 1m7f120y Gd 15913/08C8projClass-projected finish: 7th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-13Tramore?3rd3rd0
2026-07-29GalwayBHA1209th14th−5
2026-07-04BellewstownBHA12111th17th−5
2026-04-04Fairyhouse17th-1th+7
2026-03-03LeopardstownBHA1101st5th−4
2026-01-20Down RoyalBHA1021st4th−3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today10/1120/014/0713/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength47%

Delivery trend +7.0% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
10/11/20249th15/261%20%-0.41
25/11/20259th7/163%33%-0.30
03/01/20264th10/147%50%+0.03
20/01/20261st13/266%100%+0.34
03/03/20261st15/261%100%+0.39
04/04/20267th25/10%65%+0.65
04/07/202611th7/163%33%-0.30
29/07/20269th33/10%58%+0.58
13/08/20263rd9/153%60%+0.07