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Walks The Talk

7yo Mare · 11-0

Listowel · Ballygarry Estate Hotel & Spa Mares Novice Chase · 2m 3f

#4

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Winning pointer who won first 2 starts over hurdles prior to shaping better than the distance beaten suggests in better company at Haydock. Solid effort again when runner-up at Musselburgh in January but disappointing on final 2 starts. Makes chasing debut.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼4
Strength90%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.0 /10 (raw 2.9)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.9
Today:
Class gap: +3.6
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Downpatrick 15/06/2025 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR - · 2m1f165y Yie 16515/06C?C0 @ Downpatrick 15/07/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR - · 2m2f165y Goo 161C0 @ Cork 04/08/2025 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR - · 2m2f100y Goo 1614/08C?C8 @ Roscommon 29/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 16 · OR - · 2m4f53y Goo 1534 @ Kelso 08/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR - · 2m6f151y Goo 154 · HIGHER CLASS8/1141 @ Haydock 20/12/2025 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 118 · 2m2f191y Goo 154 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark20/12/2025 · OR 118 par2 @ Musselburgh 31/01/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 120 · 2m7f180y GS 155 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark31/01/2026 · OR 120 par31/012OR 1201 @ Gowran Park 14/02/2026 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 119 · 2m7f Hvy 150 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark14/02/2026 · OR 119 par14/021OR 119projClass-projected finish: 1st of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-04-10Wexford?0
2026-02-14Gowran Park15th-3th+7
2026-01-31Musselburgh22nd-5th+6
2025-12-20Haydock15th-3th+7
2025-11-08Kelso41st-3th+4
2025-09-29Roscommon?1st2nd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/0629/0931/0114/02
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 7-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -7.6% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/06/20253rd8/158%75%+0.17
15/07/20252nd2/189%86%-0.04
04/08/20254th5/287%67%-0.20
29/09/20251st7/282%100%+0.18
08/11/20251st5/493%100%+0.07
20/12/20255th6/168%50%-0.18
31/01/20262nd10/382%75%-0.07
14/02/20265th11/271%0%-0.71