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11

Back In Favour

5yo Mare · 11-7

Listowel · Paul Moynihan (Ex VFI President) Memorial Flat Race · 2m 4f

#7

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Took 6 attempts to get off the mark in points. Showed more than first time up in this sphere when third in 6-runner event at Galway (2m, good to soft) 52 days ago, plugging on. Longer trip bound to suit and has to be feared.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 6.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Roscommon 06/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 16 · OR - · 1m7f204y Gd 1656/07C?C0 @ Galway 02/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR - · 2m Goo 1542/08C?projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 4
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-02Galway?4th4th0
2026-07-06Roscommon?8th8th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/072/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1367% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +28.8% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 13. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/07/20268th11/142%53%+0.11
02/08/20264th40/10%40%+0.40