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7

Well Bud

5yo Gelding · 12-0

Listowel · Paul Moynihan (Ex VFI President) Memorial Flat Race · 2m 4f

#5

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Failed to complete on either start in points but shaped with some encouragement on his bumper debut at Killarney in May. Failed to repeat that effort in a similar event 9 weeks later and was in need of the experience switched to hurdles at same venue latest.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Killarney 11/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR - · 2m1f Goo 16811/05C?C0 @ Killarney 16/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 15 · OR - · 2m1f Goo 16816/07C?C8 @ Killarney 22/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 16 · OR - · 2m100y Goo 15822/08C8projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 4
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-22Killarney?5th5th0
2026-07-16Killarney?7th7th0
2026-05-11Killarney?3rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today11/0516/0722/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1383% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +17.7% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 13. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
11/05/20263rd11/142%80%+0.38
16/07/20267th15/261%57%-0.03
22/08/20265th66/10%73%+0.73