7
Bailey's Girl
3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 63
Mountaineer · Race 1 - Claiming · 7f
#2
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
6%
Place Prob
18%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.7
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-31 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-17 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Mountaineer | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-05 | Mountaineer | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 14100% of fieldRange 1-14 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength76%
Delivery trend -2.7% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 1st of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/06/2026 | 1st | 33/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 05/07/2026 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 29% | -0.40 |
| 27/07/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 17/08/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 20% | -0.41 |
| 31/08/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 40% | -0.07 |
| 09/09/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 89% | +0.63 |