2
Dancing Shadows
4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 63
Mountaineer · Race 1 - Claiming · 7f
#7
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength3%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Mountaineer | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-31 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-20 | Mountaineer | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-01 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1431% of fieldRange 12-14 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -8.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/05/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 43% | +0.27 |
| 02/06/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 16/06/2026 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 86% | +0.86 |
| 01/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 88% | +0.11 |
| 14/07/2026 | 5th | 9/4 | 88% | 56% | -0.33 |
| 27/07/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 20/08/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 31/08/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 60% | -0.27 |
| 09/09/2026 | 7th | 13/2 | 66% | 33% | -0.32 |