Imprudent
3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 75
Mountaineer · Race 1 - Claiming · 7f
#3
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
10%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 3.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-14 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-03 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-22 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-28 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | -1th | +2 |
| 2026-05-31 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 0th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +1.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/03/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 56% | +0.19 |
| 24/04/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 63% | -0.09 |
| 07/05/2026 | 3rd | 11/10 | 94% | 0% | -0.94 |
| 31/05/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 88% | -0.02 |
| 28/06/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 22/07/2026 | 4th | 6/4 | 92% | 40% | -0.52 |
| 03/08/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 88% | +0.05 |
| 14/08/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 09/09/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 78% | -0.04 |