10
Itza Kitty
4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 56
Mountaineer · Race 1 - Claiming · 7f
#5
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength17%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-17 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-03 | Mountaineer | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Charles Town | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-30 | Charles Town | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-04-03 | Charles Town | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1485% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength97%
Delivery trend +3.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/02/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 67% | -0.07 |
| 21/02/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |
| 21/03/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 03/04/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 60% | +0.02 |
| 30/04/2026 | 5th | 4/7 | 97% | 20% | -0.77 |
| 31/05/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 03/08/2026 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 17/08/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 80% | +0.43 |
| 31/08/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 83% | +0.57 |