1
Lightning Lane
3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 65
Mountaineer · Race 1 - Claiming · 7f
#10
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength17%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-04 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-02 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-26 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1438% of fieldRange 2-14 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength37%
Delivery trend -1.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/10/2025 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 63% | +0.36 |
| 10/11/2025 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 17% | -0.49 |
| 12/05/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |
| 26/05/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 10/06/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 02/07/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 83% | +0.57 |
| 20/07/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 50% | -0.11 |
| 04/08/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 20% | -0.48 |
| 19/08/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 50% | -0.38 |