3
Mazarn
4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 59
Mountaineer · Race 1 - Claiming · 7f
#4
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength28%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-31 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-24 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-12 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-30 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-07-14 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1446% of fieldRange 5-14 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength36%
Delivery trend -2.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/06/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 60% | +0.44 |
| 16/06/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 06/07/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 38% | -0.10 |
| 14/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 67% | -0.10 |
| 30/07/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 20% | -0.43 |
| 12/08/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 88% | +0.40 |
| 24/08/2026 | 1st | 4/7 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 31/08/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 67% | +0.04 |
| 14/09/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 71% | -0.15 |