Native Mischief
4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 64
Mountaineer · Race 1 - Claiming · 7f
#11
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.4 /10 (raw 6.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Mountaineer | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-22 | Colonial Downs | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | Colonial Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-09 | Colonial Downs | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-11-23 | Laurel Park | ? | 12th | 11th | +1 |
| 2025-10-12 | Laurel Park | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -2.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 12th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/07/2025 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 73% | +0.15 |
| 15/08/2025 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 27/08/2025 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 12/10/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 23/11/2025 | 12th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 09/07/2026 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 30/07/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 22/08/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 09/09/2026 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 44% | -0.13 |