11
She Had A Secret
7yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 59
Mountaineer · Race 1 - Claiming · 7f
#9
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength41%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-13 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-30 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-25 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-10-02 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-09-04 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1469% of fieldRange 1-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength92%
Delivery trend +1.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/06/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |
| 22/07/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 57% | +0.20 |
| 19/08/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |
| 04/09/2025 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |
| 02/10/2025 | 8th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |
| 25/10/2025 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 40% | -0.28 |
| 30/06/2026 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 13/08/2026 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 40% | -0.49 |
| 03/09/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 67% | +0.51 |