12
Sister Winnie
5yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 51
Mountaineer · Race 1 - Claiming · 7f
#14
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#14
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength28%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Charles Town | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Charles Town | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Charles Town | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-03-26 | Charles Town | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-02-20 | Charles Town | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-01-23 | Charles Town | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1423% of fieldRange 2-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength66%
Delivery trend -2.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/11/2025 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 29/11/2025 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 12/12/2025 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 23/01/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 20/02/2026 | 3rd | 33/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 26/03/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 18/04/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 06/06/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 21/08/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |