4
Tarragon
4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 73
Mountaineer · Race 1 - Claiming · 7f
#8
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength1%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.7 /10 (raw 6.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.4
Today:
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-10-22 | Keeneland | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-01-15 | Turfway Park | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2024-12-05 | Turfway Park | ? | 10th | 8th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1454% of fieldRange 1-14 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength68%
Delivery trend +7.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/12/2024 | 10th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 15/01/2025 | 7th | 7/4 | 91% | 25% | -0.66 |
| 22/10/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 24/06/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 31/08/2026 | 4th | 11/8 | 93% | 50% | -0.43 |