IvyArcIvyArc
4

A Ok

3yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 77

Mountaineer · Race 2 - Claiming · 5f

#5

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#5

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▼2
Strength76%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Finished in the top 3 in 5 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.0 /10 (raw 3.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.4
Today:
Class gap: +2.1
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Mahoning Valley 11/03/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 81 · 6f Slo 116 · below its mark11/03/2026 · OR 81 par11/03C8OR 81C5 @ Mahoning Valley 10/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 71 · 6f 117 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/04/2026 · OR 71 parC6 @ Mountaineer 29/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 73 · 6f 119 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark29/04/2026 · OR 73 par29/04C6OR 73C6 @ Mountaineer 19/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 75 · 5f 116 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/05/2026 · OR 75 parC5 @ Mountaineer 24/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 76 · 5f110y Fas 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark24/06/2026 · OR 76 par24/06C5OR 76C6 @ Mountaineer 23/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 74 · 5f110y Fas 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark23/07/2026 · OR 74 parC6 @ Mountaineer 04/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 75 · 6f Gd 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/08/2026 · OR 75 par4/08C6OR 75C6 @ Mountaineer 25/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 74 · 5f110y 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark25/08/2026 · OR 74 parC6 @ Mountaineer 16/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 4 · OR 75 · 6f Fas 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/09/2026 · OR 75 par16/09C6OR 75projClass-projected finish: 1st of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-16Mountaineer?2nd0th+2
2026-08-25Mountaineer?4th2nd+2
2026-08-04Mountaineer?1st-1th+2
2026-07-23Mountaineer?3rd1st+2
2026-06-24Mountaineer?2nd-1th+3
2026-05-19Mountaineer?2nd0th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today11/0319/054/0816/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1367% of fieldRange 3-13 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength40%

Delivery trend +5.6% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 13. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
11/03/20266th7/491%0%-0.91
10/04/20261st10/382%100%+0.18
29/04/20266th4/179%0%-0.79
19/05/20262nd4/998%88%-0.10
24/06/20262nd10/1195%86%-0.10
23/07/20263rd5/287%67%-0.20
04/08/20261st8/1196%100%+0.04
25/08/20264th6/168%50%-0.18
16/09/20262nd11/486%67%-0.19