After Sunrise
5yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 67
Mountaineer · Race 2 - Claiming · 5f
#7
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-26 | Mountaineer | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2026-07-15 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-25 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | -2th | +3 |
| 2026-05-06 | Mountaineer | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -2.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/10/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 43% | -0.05 |
| 16/10/2025 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 40% | -0.34 |
| 25/10/2025 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 67% | -0.21 |
| 06/05/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 25/05/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 24/06/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 56% | -0.23 |
| 15/07/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 26/07/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 06/08/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 20% | -0.56 |