11

Awesome Name

3yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 66

Mountaineer · Race 2 - Claiming · 5f

#11

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#11

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move1
Strength49%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 4.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: +1.2
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Lone Star 30/05/2025 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR - · 4f110y Fas 119 · HIGHER CLASS30/05C6C6 @ Lone Star 29/06/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 67 · 5f Fas 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/06/2025 · OR 67 parC6 @ Lone Star 13/07/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 70 · 7f110y Gd 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/07/2025 · OR 70 par13/07C6OR 70C6 @ Remington Park 07/09/2025 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 72 · 6f Fas 118 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark07/09/2025 · OR 72 parC6 @ Remington Park 31/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 67 · 6f110y 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark31/10/2025 · OR 67 par31/10C6OR 67C5 @ Sam Houston Race Park 07/02/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 57 · 6f Fas 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/02/2026 · OR 57 parC8 @ Lone Star 09/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 56 · 6f110y Fas 118 · below its mark09/05/2026 · OR 56 par9/05C8OR 56C8 @ Lone Star 07/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 60 · 5f Gd 118 · below its mark07/06/2026 · OR 60 par7/06C8OR 60projClass-projected finish: 11th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-07Lone Star?4th4th0
2026-05-09Lone Star?9th9th0
2026-02-07Sam Houston Race Park?6th3rd+3
2025-10-31Remington Park?1st-1th+2
2025-09-07Remington Park?6th4th+2
2025-07-13Lone Star?3rd1st+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today30/057/099/057/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1342% of fieldRange 2-13 · 68%
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength44%

Delivery trend -3.3% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 13. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
30/05/20254th12/137%63%+0.26
29/06/20253rd11/486%67%-0.19
13/07/20253rd1/195%67%-0.28
07/09/20256th11/486%38%-0.48
31/10/20251st13/266%100%+0.34
07/02/20266th8/158%0%-0.58
09/05/20269th20/10%0%0.00
07/06/20264th9/276%50%-0.26