Cascabel
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 83
Mountaineer · Race 2 - Claiming · 5f
#1
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
87%
Place Prob
64%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 4.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-26 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-10 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-30 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-11-03 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2025-10-16 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +0.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/09/2025 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 33% | -0.48 |
| 17/09/2025 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 83% | +0.01 |
| 07/10/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 86% | +0.09 |
| 16/10/2025 | 3rd | 15/8 | 90% | 60% | -0.30 |
| 03/11/2025 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 30/06/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 57% | -0.25 |
| 10/08/2026 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 26/08/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 88% | +0.11 |
| 06/09/2026 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 33% | -0.51 |