10

Golden Cookie

4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 87

Mountaineer · Race 2 - Claiming · 5f

#2

Rank

Odds

2/1

Win Prob

12%

Place Prob

23%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move
Strength37%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 3.8)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC7 @ Penn National 23/04/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 74 · 6f Fas 119 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark23/04/2025 · OR 74 par23/04C7OR 74C7 @ Penn National 16/05/2025 · Pos 2nd of 3 · OR 75 · 6f Gd 119 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark16/05/2025 · OR 75 parC8 @ Presque Isle Downs 25/06/2025 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 83 · 6f Fas 118 · below its mark25/06/2025 · OR 83 par25/06C8OR 83C8 @ Mountaineer 06/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 84 · 5f110y 120 · below its mark06/05/2026 · OR 84 parC8 @ Presque Isle Downs 02/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 79 · 6f 123 · below its mark02/06/2026 · OR 79 par2/06C8OR 79C8 @ Presque Isle Downs 24/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 80 · 6f Fas 123 · below its mark24/06/2026 · OR 80 parC8 @ Mountaineer 27/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 79 · 5f 124 · below its mark27/07/2026 · OR 79 par27/07C8OR 79C7 @ Penn National 06/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 78 · 6f 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark06/08/2026 · OR 78 parC7 @ Penn National 02/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR 79 · 6f 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/09/2026 · OR 79 par2/09C7OR 79projClass-projected finish: 5th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-02Penn National?1st0th+1
2026-08-06Penn National?3rd2nd+1
2026-07-27Mountaineer?2nd2nd0
2026-06-24Presque Isle Downs?6th6th0
2026-06-02Presque Isle Downs?6th6th0
2026-05-06Mountaineer?2nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/046/0527/072/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 13100% of fieldRange 1-11 · 68%
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength65%

Delivery trend +0.0% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 13.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/04/20253rd8/158%67%+0.09
16/05/20252nd13/891%50%-0.41
25/06/20257th10/147%0%-0.47
06/05/20262nd8/158%83%+0.25
02/06/20266th11/486%17%-0.69
24/06/20266th5/174%17%-0.57
27/07/20262nd9/488%83%-0.05
06/08/20263rd5/696%50%-0.46
02/09/20261st9/488%100%+0.12