2
Ozzy
4yo Colt · 8-12 · OR 69
Mountaineer · Race 2 - Claiming · 5f
#10
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Mountaineer | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-10-15 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-09-17 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-07-23 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1350% of fieldRange 2-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength52%
Delivery trend +1.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/03/2025 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 26/05/2025 | 10th | 50/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 17/06/2025 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 25% | -0.46 |
| 23/07/2025 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 50% | -0.11 |
| 17/09/2025 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 14% | -0.44 |
| 15/10/2025 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 43% | -0.41 |
| 16/06/2026 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 14% | -0.57 |
| 27/07/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 30/08/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |