IvyArcIvyArc
7

Rhodes

3yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 69

Mountaineer · Race 2 - Claiming · 5f

#9

Rank

Odds

15/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼2
Strength93%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.0 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.1
Today:
Class gap: +2.4
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Santa Anita 13/10/2025 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 64 · 1m Fas 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark13/10/2025 · OR 64 par13/10C6OR 64C6 @ Laurel Park 29/11/2025 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 46 · 7f 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/11/2025 · OR 46 parC9 @ Laurel Park 19/12/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 48 · 5f110y 122 · beat its mark19/12/2025 · OR 48 par19/12C9OR 48C6 @ Laurel Park 13/02/2026 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 63 · 6f 121 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark13/02/2026 · OR 63 parC5 @ Mahoning Valley 11/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 4 · OR 66 · 6f Slo 116 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark11/03/2026 · OR 66 par11/03C5OR 66C5 @ Thistledown 22/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 65 · 5f110y Fas 115 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/04/2026 · OR 65 parC5 @ Thistledown 12/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 68 · 6f Fas 115 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/05/2026 · OR 68 par12/05C5OR 68C5 @ Mountaineer 08/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 67 · 6f 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/07/2026 · OR 67 parC5 @ Mountaineer 17/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 71 · 7f Slo 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark17/08/2026 · OR 71 par17/08C5OR 71projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-17Mountaineer?5th2nd+3
2026-07-08Mountaineer?1st-2th+3
2026-05-12Thistledown?3rd0th+3
2026-04-22Thistledown?2nd-1th+3
2026-03-11Mahoning Valley?4th1st+3
2026-02-13Laurel Park?5th3rd+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today13/1013/0212/0517/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 138% of fieldRange 9-13 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength0%

Delivery trend -1.3% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 12th of 13.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
13/10/20257th33/10%0%0.00
29/11/20256th5/174%38%-0.36
19/12/20251st6/594%100%+0.06
13/02/20265th5/174%0%-0.74
11/03/20264th7/163%0%-0.63
22/04/20262nd11/271%80%+0.09
12/05/20263rd9/276%60%-0.16
08/07/20261st2/189%100%+0.11
17/08/20265th7/163%0%-0.63