Sneaky Sneaky
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 83
Mountaineer · Race 2 - Claiming · 5f
#6
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.2 /10 (raw 4.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-09 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-20 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-01 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-02-25 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2026-02-09 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -2.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07/2025 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 78% | -0.04 |
| 10/08/2025 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 40% | -0.42 |
| 31/08/2025 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 09/02/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 25/02/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 80% | +0.64 |
| 01/04/2026 | 4th | 6/4 | 92% | 0% | -0.92 |
| 20/04/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 60% | -0.14 |
| 09/06/2026 | 2nd | 8/11 | 96% | 75% | -0.21 |
| 06/08/2026 | 3rd | 6/5 | 94% | 60% | -0.34 |