10
Athena's Ghost
5yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 47
Mountaineer · Race 3 - Claiming · 5f
#13
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#13
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength27%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.7
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-07 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-10-07 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-08-27 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-06-26 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-06-09 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-04-28 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 140% of fieldRange 8-14 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -5.0% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 14th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/02/2025 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 86% | +0.70 |
| 17/03/2025 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 83% | +0.20 |
| 31/03/2025 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 0% | -0.84 |
| 28/04/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 09/06/2025 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 50% | -0.16 |
| 26/06/2025 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 27/08/2025 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 20% | -0.59 |
| 07/10/2025 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 07/11/2025 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 20% | -0.33 |