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4

Aurora's Music

4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 69

Mountaineer · Race 3 - Claiming · 5f

#2

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

7%

Place Prob

13%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▼2
Strength68%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.0 /10 (raw 3.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: +1.7
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Mountaineer 05/05/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 74 · 6f Slo 116 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/05/2025 · OR 74 par5/05C6OR 74C5 @ Mountaineer 21/05/2025 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 77 · 5f110y Fas 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/05/2025 · OR 77 parC5 @ Mountaineer 29/06/2025 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 81 · 7f110y 116 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/06/2025 · OR 81 par29/06C5OR 81C5 @ Mountaineer 04/08/2025 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 79 · 4f110y Fm 116 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark04/08/2025 · OR 79 parC8 @ Presque Isle Downs 30/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 74 · 6f 119 · below its mark30/09/2025 · OR 74 par30/09C8OR 74C5 @ Mountaineer 30/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 76 · 6f 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/10/2025 · OR 76 parC5 @ Mountaineer 18/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 81 · 5f Fm 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/05/2026 · OR 81 par18/05C5OR 81C8 @ Mountaineer 19/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 74 · 7f Fas 124 · below its mark19/07/2026 · OR 74 parC5 @ Mountaineer 29/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 74 · 7f110y Gd 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/07/2026 · OR 74 par29/07C5OR 74projClass-projected finish: 1st of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-29Mountaineer?3rd0th+3
2026-07-19Mountaineer?2nd2nd0
2026-05-18Mountaineer?2nd-1th+3
2025-10-30Mountaineer?1st-2th+3
2025-09-30Presque Isle Downs?2nd2nd0
2025-08-04Mountaineer?5th2nd+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today5/054/0818/0529/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1485% of fieldRange 4-13 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength42%

Delivery trend -1.9% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 14.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
05/05/20251st11/893%100%+0.07
21/05/20253rd9/153%60%+0.07
29/06/20253rd4/179%75%-0.04
04/08/20255th8/158%43%-0.15
30/09/20252nd7/163%75%+0.12
30/10/20251st12/137%100%+0.63
18/05/20262nd7/163%86%+0.23
19/07/20262nd8/1597%83%-0.14
29/07/20263rd9/488%50%-0.38