2
Bien Fresa
4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 67
Mountaineer · Race 3 - Claiming · 5f
#1
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
83%
Place Prob
47%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength36%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 2.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.9
Today:
Class gap: +0.6
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-09 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-09-23 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | -1th | +2 |
| 2025-08-26 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 0th | +2 |
| 2025-08-10 | Mountaineer | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2025-07-22 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 14100% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength73%
Delivery trend +1.8% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 1st of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/07/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 60% | +0.13 |
| 10/08/2025 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 33% | -0.43 |
| 26/08/2025 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 80% | -0.07 |
| 23/09/2025 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 09/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 60% | -0.28 |
| 13/08/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |