1
Buxtehude
4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 60
Mountaineer · Race 3 - Claiming · 5f
#6
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength63%
What the class read says
Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.4 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-09-03 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-13 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-22 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-13 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-05-25 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1477% of fieldRange 2-13 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength47%
Delivery trend -5.0% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 4th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/07/2025 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 12/08/2025 | 10th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 12/05/2026 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 25/05/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 13/07/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 22/07/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 80% | -0.04 |
| 13/08/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 60% | -0.26 |
| 03/09/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 14/09/2026 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |