3
Diamond Dancer
4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 60
Mountaineer · Race 3 - Claiming · 5f
#7
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 3.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-12 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-18 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-06-19 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-05-22 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-02 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1438% of fieldRange 5-14 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength17%
Delivery trend +0.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/04/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 90% | +0.06 |
| 02/05/2026 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 57% | -0.32 |
| 22/05/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 71% | +0.03 |
| 19/06/2026 | 5th | 15/8 | 90% | 20% | -0.70 |
| 18/07/2026 | 6th | 5/2 | 87% | 17% | -0.70 |
| 12/08/2026 | 1st | 1/2 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 20/08/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |