7
Leave Drama Behind
5yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 66
Mountaineer · Race 3 - Claiming · 5f
#9
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength41%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-09 | Mountaineer | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-01 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-26 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-12-01 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 1415% of fieldRange 9-14 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -3.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 12th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/09/2025 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 15/10/2025 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 12/11/2025 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 01/12/2025 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 86% | +0.25 |
| 26/04/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 16/06/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 57% | -0.14 |
| 01/07/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 27/07/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 09/08/2026 | 7th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |