Little Sam's
3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 70
Mountaineer · Race 3 - Claiming · 5f
#3
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 4.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-18 | Mountaineer | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-04-28 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | -2th | +3 |
| 2026-02-20 | Turfway Park | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-01-14 | Turfway Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-11-26 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -6.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/09/2025 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 23/10/2025 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 02/11/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |
| 26/11/2025 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 14/01/2026 | 8th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |
| 20/02/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 28/04/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 18/05/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 29% | -0.50 |
| 03/09/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 17% | -0.54 |