8
Moonlight Tango
7yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 54
Mountaineer · Race 3 - Claiming · 5f
#10
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength45%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-29 | Mountaineer | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2024-10-14 | Mountaineer | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2024-08-14 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2024-08-05 | Mountaineer | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2023-12-04 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2023-11-13 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1454% of fieldRange 1-14 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength47%
Delivery trend +7.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/08/2023 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 60% | -0.19 |
| 11/09/2023 | 9th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 29/10/2023 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 33% | -0.35 |
| 13/11/2023 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 20% | -0.66 |
| 04/12/2023 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 43% | -0.15 |
| 05/08/2024 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 17% | +0.01 |
| 14/08/2024 | 1st | 40/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 14/10/2024 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 29/10/2024 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 11% | -0.05 |