11
My Daniela
5yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 54
Mountaineer · Race 3 - Claiming · 5f
#14
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#14
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength28%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-19 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-09 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-17 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-25 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1431% of fieldRange 1-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength61%
Delivery trend +7.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/10/2025 | 7th | 13/2 | 66% | 0% | -0.66 |
| 18/11/2025 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 27/04/2026 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 25/05/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 20% | -0.27 |
| 17/06/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 09/07/2026 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 19/07/2026 | 5th | 50/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 05/08/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 24/08/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 25% | -0.01 |