IvyArcIvyArc
12

Sagcy

3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 63

Mountaineer · Race 3 - Claiming · 5f

#8

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#8

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength40%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 3.6)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC9 @ Tampa Bay Downs 16/01/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR - · 5f110y 11916/01C9C9 @ Tampa Bay Downs 13/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 75 · 6f110y 119 · below its mark13/02/2026 · OR 75 parC9 @ Tampa Bay Downs 27/02/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 74 · 5f110y Fas 119 · below its mark27/02/2026 · OR 74 par27/02C9OR 74C9 @ Tampa Bay Downs 18/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 75 · 6f 119 · below its mark18/03/2026 · OR 75 parC9 @ Mountaineer 12/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 67 · 6f 119 · below its mark12/05/2026 · OR 67 par12/05C9OR 67C6 @ Mountaineer 06/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 64 · 6f Slo 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/07/2026 · OR 64 parC6 @ Mountaineer 28/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 59 · 5f Fas 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/07/2026 · OR 59 par28/07C6OR 59C6 @ Mountaineer 18/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 58 · 5f 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/08/2026 · OR 58 parC8 @ Mountaineer 31/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 65 · 7f Fm 120 · below its mark31/08/2026 · OR 65 par31/08C8OR 65projClass-projected finish: 6th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-31Mountaineer?5th5th0
2026-08-18Mountaineer?1st-1th+2
2026-07-28Mountaineer?2nd0th+2
2026-07-06Mountaineer?5th3rd+2
2026-05-12Mountaineer?4th5th−1
2026-03-18Tampa Bay Downs?5th6th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/0118/0328/0731/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1446% of fieldRange 4-14 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength33%

Delivery trend -8.1% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 14. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/01/20264th40/10%67%+0.67
13/02/20262nd7/491%80%-0.11
27/02/20264th11/271%57%-0.14
18/03/20265th14/126%64%+0.37
12/05/20264th11/893%40%-0.53
06/07/20265th13/266%50%-0.16
28/07/20262nd7/491%80%-0.11
18/08/20261st5/493%100%+0.07
31/08/20265th9/276%20%-0.56