9
Sweetcatherinerose
5yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 70
Mountaineer · Race 3 - Claiming · 5f
#5
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-01 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Mountaineer | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-06-24 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-06-04 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-05-01 | Charles Town | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2024-10-20 | Laurel Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1469% of fieldRange 2-14 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength37%
Delivery trend -4.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07/2024 | 3rd | 15/8 | 90% | 71% | -0.19 |
| 13/08/2024 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 29/08/2024 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 86% | -0.06 |
| 20/10/2024 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 43% | -0.33 |
| 01/05/2025 | 7th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |
| 04/06/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 75% | +0.28 |
| 24/06/2025 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 25% | -0.54 |
| 10/06/2026 | 7th | 5/2 | 87% | 0% | -0.87 |
| 01/07/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |