7
Champagne Powder
4yo Gelding · 10-12
Perth · Harvesting What Matters Most Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race) · 2m 47y
#5
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Cartmel | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Salisbury | 4 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-04-06 | Kempton | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-02-06 | Newcastle | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-01-08 | Chelmsford City | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-12-11 | Chelmsford City | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1044% of fieldRange 8-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -2.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/07/2025 | 4th | 5/6 | 96% | 57% | -0.38 |
| 24/10/2025 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 58% | +0.58 |
| 28/11/2025 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 71% | -0.13 |
| 11/12/2025 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 08/01/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 75% | -0.12 |
| 06/02/2026 | 8th | 11/2 | 71% | 36% | -0.35 |
| 06/04/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 23/05/2026 | 11th | 11/1 | 42% | 0% | -0.42 |
| 29/08/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |