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Gambino

5yo Gelding · 11-12 · OR 119

Perth · Harvesting What Matters Most Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race) · 2m 47y

#1

Rank

Odds

9/4

Win Prob

100%

Place Prob

99%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Showed plenty when behind a fairly useful pair with experience on hurdling debut at Newbury in March. Made the most of a couple of good openings at Cartmel (17f) this summer but will likely need to pull out more if he's to give weight and a beating to Chicker.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength41%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 2.6)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 4
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Gowran Park 02/04/2025 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR - · 1m1f130y Yie 1352/04C8BHA82 @ Gowran Park 13/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 82 · 1m4f100y Goo 126 · below its mark13/08/2025 · OR 82 par13/0882OR 822 @ Southwell 20/02/2026 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR 83 · 1m4f14y Std 139 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/02/2026 · OR 83 par20/022OR 833 @ Newbury 21/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR - · 2m69y Goo 154 · HIGHER CLASS21/0333 @ Musselburgh 04/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR 83 · 1m5f216y Sft 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/04/2026 · OR 83 par4/043OR 834 @ Cartmel 20/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR - · 2m1f46y Gd 15820/0744 @ Cartmel 29/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 119 · 2m1f46y Goo 163 · beat its mark29/08/2026 · OR 119 par29/084OR 119projClass-projected finish: 1st of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-29Cartmel41st1st0
2026-07-20Cartmel41st1st0
2026-04-04Musselburgh37th6th+1
2026-03-21Newbury33rd2nd+1
2026-02-20Southwell23rd1st+2
2025-08-13Gowran ParkBHA822nd7th−4

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/0421/0329/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength69%

Delivery trend -7.3% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/04/20251st6/168%100%+0.32
13/08/20252nd7/163%83%+0.20
20/02/20263rd12/137%83%+0.46
21/03/20263rd11/271%71%+0.00
04/04/20267th11/486%50%-0.36
20/07/20261st4/696%100%+0.04
29/08/20261st30/10098%100%+0.02