8
Moon Reign
4yo Gelding · 10-12
Perth · Harvesting What Matters Most Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race) · 2m 47y
#8
Rank
Odds
50/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲3
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.
Class-adjusted form 9.1 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C7.0
Today: 4
Class gap: -3.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-02 | Perth | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-10-13 | Roscommon | ? | 6th | 11th | −4 |
| 2025-09-22 | Listowel | ? | 5th | 10th | −4 |
| 2025-08-02 | Galway | ? | 4th | 9th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1022% of fieldRange 5-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength1%
Delivery trend +3.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08/2025 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |
| 22/09/2025 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 71% | -0.15 |
| 13/10/2025 | 6th | 7/4 | 91% | 50% | -0.41 |
| 02/07/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |