10
Zebra Star
6yo Mare · 10-7
Perth · Harvesting What Matters Most Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race) · 2m 47y
#6
Rank
Odds
50/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength26%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 9.9 /10 (raw 6.2)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 4
Class gap: -2.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Carlisle | 6 | 9th | 11th | −2 |
| 2026-08-08 | Ayr | 6 | 9th | 11th | −2 |
| 2026-07-05 | Ayr | 6 | 9th | 11th | −2 |
| 2026-06-19 | Ayr | 6 | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2026-06-06 | Musselburgh | 6 | 5th | 7th | −2 |
| 2026-05-05 | Ayr | 6 | 9th | 11th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1056% of fieldRange 6-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength10%
Delivery trend +5.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09/2025 | 10th | 11/2 | 71% | 10% | -0.61 |
| 01/10/2025 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 33% | -0.35 |
| 09/10/2025 | 10th | 11/1 | 42% | 18% | -0.24 |
| 05/05/2026 | 9th | 11/1 | 42% | 20% | -0.22 |
| 06/06/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 60% | +0.23 |
| 19/06/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 63% | +0.26 |
| 05/07/2026 | 9th | 11/2 | 71% | 11% | -0.60 |
| 08/08/2026 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 27% | +0.01 |
| 27/08/2026 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |