Bel Amigo
7yo Gelding · 11-6 · OR 112
Perth · Lord Mansfield Memorial Handicap Hurdle · 2m 4f 35y
#6
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 3.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-01 | Musselburgh | 2 | +2 | ||
| 2026-01-01 | Musselburgh | 3 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2025-12-07 | Kelso | 3 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2025-10-16 | Carlisle | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-09-24 | Perth | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-05-15 | Perth | 3 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -0.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/11/2024 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 50% | -0.34 |
| 09/03/2025 | 1st | 18/1 | 5% | 100% | +0.95 |
| 23/03/2025 | 1st | 1/4 | 99% | 100% | +0.01 |
| 19/04/2025 | 1st | 8/11 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 15/05/2025 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 17% | -0.49 |
| 24/09/2025 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 82% | +0.29 |
| 16/10/2025 | 2nd | 1/1 | 95% | 83% | -0.11 |
| 07/12/2025 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 80% | +0.22 |
| 01/01/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |